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    COP29: China, Trump and the EU, each own way: Green vs. stranded fossil assets

    By
    Will Dubitsky
    -
    0
    Update Dec. 5, 2024 Chart of cargo containers with Chinese, US and European Union flags

    For climate action, China has chosen long-term extraordinary innovation investments and scale to wean off fossil fuels.

    The European Union (EU) is making progress for energy independence by 2027, though with some Chinese technologies.

    Too, the UK and Brazil have set ambitious climate targets

    The U.S., Trump administration will enhance paths towards stranded fossil fuel assets. The private sector will continue floundering on clean tech innovation and base performance on the short-term, quarterly reports.

    Canada will emulate the U.S.

    China

    China spent $676 billion on clean tech in 2023, over double that of any other nation.

    The good news is that China’s power emissions may peak by 2025, ahead of its 2030 target and the first annual decline since 2016. Should China succeed in plateauing emissions in 2025, the Paris Agreement target to halve emissions by 2030, could have been a possibility, if it weren’t from Trump.

    This potential appears unimaginable since China accounted for 30% of global emissions in 2022, 11 billion tonnes.

    China’s 2024 drop in annual emissions is anticipated to be about 7.2% or 8.2%.

    The bad news are potential impacts on economies outside China regarding their clean tech manufacturers competing with much more affordable and more advanced Chinese exports.

    There appears to be a pattern for China’s clean tech successes, high up front government support for research and development plus oversupplying the domestic Chinese market.  This formula has had mixed consequences.

    China’s oversupply of clean tech industry typically achieves excellent economies of scale for offering low prices, but often results in profit declines, or even losing money, due to fierce competition in the domestic market.

    To make up for the domestic low margins, prices for Chinese export markets are set to be both profitable and affordable choices in these markets.

    European Union

    The European Union, post Russian invasion of Ukraine, like China, has an agenda to sever dependence on fossil fuels. The EU aims for energy independence via a green transition by 2027.

    While there was a 911-like spike in LNG imports from the U.S. immediately after the invasion, thanks to intensive emphasis on renewables, heat pumps, efficiency and other measures, EU gas imports were down 20% in 2023 and anticipated to peak by 2025.

    Electric vehicle (EV) sales trends indicate a displacement in European oil consumption of 3.3 million barrels/day by 2030.

    U.S. and Canada

    Trump promised to pull out of the Paris Agreement.

    Though the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) have been outstanding in supporting the building of clean tech factories, EV purchases and the installation of home energy saving solutions, e.g. heat pumps, and solar panels, Trump wants to water down these milestone laws to suit his agenda.

    Nonetheless, Trump will have to take into account that in 2023 the clean energy sector, including storage and EV charging, came in at 40% of U.S. energy jobs, with a 200% growth in that year.

    The EV and battery projects announced and associated with the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law will create of 201,900 jobs.  This sector could generate another 931,000 jobs.

    Still, since the U.S. innovation gap with China widened even with the original IRA and BIL in place, expect that gap to grow when Trump unbelievably dilutes the legislation.

    Trump referred government backing of the green economy as a “green new scam.”

    Further contributing to the innovation gap, emission standards across all sectors will become more lenient.

    Most notably, the overriding energy themes will be in “drill, baby drill,” for increasing oil and gas production.

    What will Trump do when global fossil fuel demand peaks and U.S. clean tech jobs outnumber oil industry employment?

    Sadly, Canada will follow in U.S., as always, and continue to be a fossil fuel exporting nation.  The next likely Prime Minister, Pierre Poiliève, will make sure of that.

    UK and Brazil step up at COP29

    At COP29, the UK pledged to reduce emissions by 81% by 2035 from 1990 levels and Brazil has prepared a comprehensive climate plan for a 59% to 67% GHG reduction by 2035 based on 2005 levels.

    Electric Vehicles and batteries

    China’s dominance in affordable electric vehicle (EV) and battery sectors are prominent examples of technological leadership and the Chinese oversupply business models.

    At first glance, one might get the impression that China is an unlikely leader in these sectors.

    Compared to Western economies, China has considerably fewer cars, vans, buses, freight and other trucks per 1,000 inhabitants at 231, very low compared to the U.S. 908; Canada 790; Germany 628; and  U.K. 600.

    In part, low vehicle ownership in China is a consequence of being the global leader public transit. China has 46,000 km of high-speed rail, 50 subway systems with over 10,000 km of track, substantial light rail and had 455,000 e-buses on its roads in 2022.

    Yet, with EVs having reached 53% of the Chinese vehicle market in September 2024, China represented 69% of the global EV registrations in 2024, up until October.  That’s because Chinese EVs are considerably more affordable than EVs in other countries.

    China’s EV tech lead goes back to the 1990’s when China started to invest in EV research.  Back then, China had realized Chinese manufacturers of internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) models could not compete in export markets that are too overcrowded with competitors.

    Thereupon, China developed a complex compilation of measures that pushed manufacturers towards producing New Energy Vehicles (EVs), the consequences being manufacturing of ICEVs became more expensive to produce and EVs less expensive.

    Today, additional more compelling contributing factors to Chinese affordable EVs and batteries include government support for quickly getting over the time hump to get a return on investment. Overall, China’s EV financing covers innovation, development, minimizing production costs and start-ups.

    China’s holistic long term vision has been a key to reducing EV battery costs.  China has invested more on battery research than all other nations combined and has a plethora of EV R & D programs.

    Unimageable in Western economies, China’s CATL, the largest battery producer in the world, has 20,000 employees dedicated to R & D.

    BYD, the largest EV manufacturer in China and second biggest battery producer, is a rare integrated EV and battery firm making most parts in-house.  These achievements are thanks to its 900,000 employees, of which more than 110,000 are R & D staff.

    By early 2022, China accounted for 80 percent of global battery production capacity and controls, 75% of battery cell manufacturing, 90% of anode and electrolyte production, 60% of battery component manufacturing, and refining for more than half of global lithium, cobalt and graphite.

    The battery technology-related savings have manifested into 95% of Chinese made EVs equipped with the less costly lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.  LFP batteries are nearly exclusively manufactured in China.

    Outside China, NMC batteries (lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide) are typically used.

    Compared to the NMC batteries, LFP batteries are cheaper to manufacture, have higher stability and are easier to recycle.

    However, on performance, LFP batteries are not yet as good as lithium-ion ones.  But technological advances are in the process of closing the performance gap.

    CATL and BYD alone, have 90% of the LFP market.

    The results are battery costs are about 18% less in China than elsewhere.  This is critical for the pricing of an EV since the battery typically comes in at 40% of an EV’s cost.

    However, until now, China’s LFP batteries have been destined for the more affordable entry level small low- to mid-cost models.

    Hyundai is about to change all that, challenging China’s LFP cartel with an ultra-high capacity 300 Wh/kg LFP battery to be produced without Chinese components by end 2025.  Average Chinese LFP battery capacity is 200 Wh/kg.

    If Hyundai succeeds in its LFP development plan, it will have a LFP battery with longer range than the typical NMC battery and would be the first LFP battery for high performance EVs.

    If all goes according to plan, Hyundai may be able to produce affordable EVs with LFP batteries for both entry level and performance models, with impressive range and not subject to tariff barriers.

    Also in progress, BYD is constructing a factory for third generation batteries, sodium-ion batteries, for scooters and micro vehicles, for starters.  BYD believes it could eventually produce sodium-ion batteries that will be less than the cost of LFP in the long term.

    CATL is working on its improved new enhanced version of sodium-ion batteries for small and short range vehicles and China’s Chery will have a factory for the fourth generation, solid-state batteries.

    As well, China’s EVs benefit from better economies of scale associated with oversupplying. Chinese EV manufacturers bet attractive pricing will create demand to meet supply.  Oversupply may be an understatement as China’s 200 EV manufacturers will have launched about 110 EV models by end 2024.  With all the competition, the average domestic profit margin is slim, averaging 5% in 2023, with some models sold below cost.

    As indicated above, the profits are made on exports, while still maintaining a price advantage.  The BYD lineup average price is $30,000.

    While the U.S. and Canada have imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs, BYD is entering a new foreign market nearly every week, launches about 10 new models/year, and has an operating manufacturing plant in Thailand, plus facility projects in Mexico, Hungary, Turkey, Brazil and Indonesia.

    These are important considerations, since the revenues of legacy automakers depend on global markets, not North America alone.

    Legacy EV and battery manufacturers outside Asia cannot compete with the scale, pace of innovation and/or vertical integration of their Asian competitors.

    Legacy firms depend on a plethora of external suppliers.

    All the more for making the future of Western legacy automakers uncertain.

    Tariffs and other barriers to affordable EVs

    The U.S. and Canada 100% tariffs on China’s EVs, batteries and components will boomerang regarding a growing innovation gap and legacy automakers’ competitivity in critical global markets.

    Not bothered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, Biden and Trump intend to keep Chinese EVs made in Mexico out of the U.S.

    Since the U.S. also has a trade agreements with Morocco and South Korea, many Chinese EV components investors had been planning to build plants in these countries.

    A Trump reworking of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, upon which the Moroccan and South Korean projects are premised, may see the aforementioned investments put on pause.

    The Biden administration has already implied that Chinese EVs manufactured elsewhere would not be eligible for $7,500 consumer credit applicable to North American built vehicles.

    Trump may put the final nail on this escape route.

    The Trump additional 25% import tariffs for all goods from Canada and Mexico might apply to Canadian EVs and batteries too.

    Contrasting the U.S. an Canada, the European Union has manufacturer-specific trade barriers on Chinese EVs, the EU varying tariffs range from 8% to 35%, on top of an existing 10% duty.  The highest tariff is aimed at SAIC Motor Corp, likely because the company is state-owned.

    The EU doesn’t want to set the tariffs too high because the EU hopes to attract China’s manufacturers to invest in factories in the EU.  Production of Chinese EVs in Europe would remove tariffs and many Chinese EV manufactures are doing just that.

    In addition to the BYD EV plants planned for Hungary and Turkey, other Chinese EV stakeholders, such as Geely vehicles and CATL, are engaged in major investments in Europe.

    Even with the EU tariffs, many Chinese EV imports will still be somewhat more affordable than their European competitors.

    The European Commission (EC) concluded that the average Chinese EV battery electric vehicle (BEV) imports cost 32% less than European EVs in 2023.

    The 2024 prognosis is that China’s EV imports will come in at 25% of the European EV market share.

    A large portion of these imports are Tesla, Dacia and BMW EVs.

    Legacy automakers

    The China advantage spells trouble for EVs produced by legacy automakers.

    Battery projects in Western economies may be outdated before production begins.

    Better technology and better prices cannot be stifled by protectionism.

    Many legacy automakers have not gotten over the hump for a return on investment.

    In June 2024, Ford claimed it loses $100,000 for every EV sold, its EV division lost $4.7 billion in 2023 and expected losses to hit $5.5 billion in 2024.  Thus, Ford plans to offer more of the more profitable plug-in hybrids.

    Meanwhile, GM is mumbling about offering different battery chemistries and enlarging its plug-in hybrid lineup.

    Volkswagen, the largest German employer with 10 factories in the country, is experiencing economic troubles too and looking to plug-in hybrids as the way forward.

    In late October 2024, Volkswagen announced it will be shutting down 3 plants in Germany and cut wages by 10% for 140,000 employees.

    Among other things, Volkswagen cited a drop in third quarter 2024 profit levels by 42% associated with lower then projected, or insufficient, EV sales, to recover the high EV transition costs; increased competition from European EV imports from China; and sharp declines in the Volkswagen market in China, where EV sales now exceed ICEVs.

    Since traditionally 40% of Volkswagen sales have been in China, the deterioration of the Volkswagen market in China constitutes a heavy blow for the company.

    Likewise, BMW and Mercedes Benz are dependent on the Chinese market, for 32% of global sales and 28% respectively.

    This puts Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz and BMW in a conundrum.

    Germany opposed EU tariffs on EV imports from China.

    Oversupply in renewables

    China is determined to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel imports while Trump aims to increase oil and gas production.

    Accordingly, the China clean tech oversupply business model applies to the solar panel, and wind turbine sectors.

    In the China’s wind sector, production overcapacity during 2022 and 2023 brought about low domestic market profit margins, while in the U.S. and Europe, the margins were 2 to 3 times higher.

    Consequently, the Chinese turbines prices in Europe and the U.S. were lower than their European and U.S. competitors.  Six of the 10 top windpower producers are Chinese.

    For solar panels, despite China’s mindboggling increases in the annual solar installation rate, China’s solar manufacturers were caught with an oversupply having exceeded China’s storage and transmission capacity.

    In the coming two years, the Chinese solar modules manufacturing capacity may actually double world demand.

    As is the case with the Chinese EV sector, excessive renewables competition within China has led to unprofitably low domestic prices, compensated by exports of more profitable and affordable exports.

    Trump’s proposed 20% tariffs on all solar and wind imports from China could affect the prices of renewables in the U.S.

    The takeaway

    China, the EU, the UK and Brazil will accelerate weaning off fossil fuels, leaving the U.S., and Canada too, to increase the production of these fuels as the market for these fuels dwindles.

    China will persist in manufacturing more clean tech, solar, wind, EVs, batteries/storage, plus electrifying its industries at levels greater than the rest of the world combined.

    For the U.S., action on climate change to compete with China, will take inconceivable huge hits with Trump, while fossil fuel production will be administered steroids.  The U.S. clean tech private sector will continue to lag on innovation, constrained by an investment community which only understands  quarterly reports.  The U.S. will continue to lose ground on clean tech leadership.

    Canada has much to lose, especially with Conservative Pierre Poiliève, the likely next Prime Minister, aligned with Trump on denial of climate change, increasing oil and gas production and many other issues.

    The EU seeks win-win formulae with rational environmental and economic considerations.  The EU may show the way forward.

    China, the EU, UK and Brazil will stand out as global climate leaders.

    Carney: Fossil fuels and other lobbies

    By
    Will Dubitsky
    -
    0

    Political landscape

    No Canadian government has ever met its own climate targets.  It seems that whenever it comes time to implement policies for achieving such goals, backtracking and greenwashing take precedence.

    The Carney administration supports oil and gas exports and has done away with Trudeau climate initiatives.

    But this hasn’t changed much.

    For example, the Trudeau era cap on oil and gas emissions allowed increases in oil and gas production up to 2030 that magically entailed a reduction of emissions, thanks to ineffective carbon capture and storage technologies.

    The Trudeau government sanctioned the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and the Bay du Nord Newfoundland offshore oil projects.

    And it broke its promise on ending oil and gas subsidies.

    On culture, Carney dropped existing policies to fend off Trump’s tariffs, but Trump imposed new tariffs anyway on what he called “nasty” Canada.

    Carney before becoming Prime Minister

    Previously, Mark Carney, was climate champion and said that some sectors not adapting to climate realities will disappear.

    In 2019, while Governor of Bank of England, Carney made a statement that we must reduce CO2 by 45%, relative to 2010, in the next decade, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

    However, once Prime Minister, at a press conference last July 16, 2026, Carney explained that he was easing climate regulations in order to attract investments that will reduce our emissions.

    Carney’s oil and gas strategy

    Mark Carney wants to build a new pipeline, the West Coast Oil Pipeline, with 90% of the costs to be assumed by the Canadian government.  On August 1, 2026, the Canadian government gave notice that it will build the West Coast Oil Pipeline as a “national interest” project under the Building Canada Act.  This will allow the pipeline project to proceed without adequate environmental assessments.

    Never mind that the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline, from Alberta to the BC coast, operates under capacity, cost up to C$50 billion in subsidies, plus Canadian taxpayers contribute C$3 billion/year to operate it.

    On July 2, 2026, Carney and BC Premier David Eby agreed to accelerate the development of four major liquefied natural gas export projects as part of a broader agreement aimed at expanding energy exports and strengthening the country’s trade infrastructure.  The Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement identifies four liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminals, namely LNG Canada Phase 2; Ksi Lisims LNG; Cedar LNG; and Woodfibre LNG, as priority projects.

    Most of the projected output of Canada’s LNG export terminals do not have any anchor markets.  Worrisome, since projects are planned over multi-decade prospects.

    Oil and gas imports plateauing and set to decline

    Never mind, two-thirds of the 2025, $3.3 trillion in global investments related to energy was dedicated to cleantech and infrastructure, $2.2 trillion, the rest to fossil fuels.  The $2.2 trillion comprises renewables, electric vehicles (EVs), grid storage (batteries), heat pumps, energy efficiency and much more.

    Never mind that Carney’s quadrupling of Canada’s military budget by 2035 to comply with Trump’s military target of 5% of GDP for foreign countries, sabotages Canada’s financial potential to buttress a cleantech sector.  For a developed country, Canada is extremely weak in cleantech.

    Never mind China will heavily influence global oil supply and demand as it represents 25% of global crude oil imports and, as of 2025, its oil and diesel consumption started to decline.

    Never mind, in the EU, which is entirely dependent on imports for gas supplies, gas consumption dropped by 20% between 2021 and 2024, likely peaked in 2024.  By 2030, based on 2024 levels, EU gas use may drop another 29% by 2030, and 67% by 2040.

    Never mind, China, the world’s largest energy consumer, experienced a 24% decline in natural gas imports in 2024.  Massive deployment of renewables, together with politically motivated imports of Russian gas are behind this.

    Pakistan now has enough distributed solar power potential to meet all of its needs, including those of isolated communities.  Distributed energy now furnishes more energy to the country than power from the grid.

    From 2021 to 2025, Pakistan shifted from generating 3% of electricity from solar, to 22%. This led the government to cancel LNG cargoes scheduled for 2026-2027 and seek to renegotiate long-term contracts.

    Regardless of all the warning signs for declining LNG imports, LNG exporters are planning to increase production in the US in particular.  LNG exports will grow 3 times faster in 2026 to 2030 compared to 2021 to 2025.

    EVs

    Never mind, Carney abolished the zero emission vehicle sales (ZEV) interim targets, which was supposed to begin in 2026, to better align with Trump’s abolition of vehicle emission regulations.  Canada’s revised target is 90% ZEVs by 2040.  Nearly all vehicles will be electric by then anyway.

    Carney, alongside Trump, are setting up the North American automakers, including Japanese automakers, to fall so far behind those of the rest of the world that they risk being unable to catch up with not only Chinese brands, but also those of South Korea and Europe.  Another round of US and Canadian bailouts of North American automakers may soon be on the horizon.

    Consider that in 2025, the IEA and Ember estimated EVs came in at more than 25% of the world vehicle market, 20 million units.  This will likely rise to 29% in 2026.

    China’s EV market share projection for year 2026 is 60%, with 100% fully electric vehicles, or battery electric vehicles (BEVs), at 40%.  China’s 2026 EV June 2026 market share was 63%.  If current trends continue, EV sales in China will rise to 100% by 2030, 100% BEVs by 2035.

    European EVs reached 37% of vehicle sales in June 2026.

    Since road transportation represents 45% of global oil demand, the ongoing transition to EVs surely impacts requirements for oil imports.

    Back in 2024, EVs displaced oil demand by 1.5 million barrels/day.   Petroleum demand for road transportation is expected to peak in 2027.  Peak passenger vehicle oil demand occurred in 2025.

    For 2 and 3 wheelers, peak oil consumption has already been reached.

    China’s EV exports are currently displacing 270,000 b/d.  Half of this stems from the exports of two-wheelers, mainly motorcycles, mainly to Southeast Asia.

    Canadian natural gas to feed US and Canadian AI data centers

    On supporting Canadian natural gas exports, Carney is promoting selling natural gas to feed US AI data centres.

    Never mind that 75% of global AI capacity is in the US and the proliferation of US data centres is such that most of these data centres constitute overcapacity, primarily doing the same thing.  There being no monopoly reference, as is the case with Internet Google searches, the data centres are competing to be the top gun.  It doesn’t seem to matter that at least 50% of AI answers are slop, that is, misinformation or just plain wrong.

    Never mind that US data centres have yet to prove they are profitable, largely financed by subsidized private debt.  They are losing money, even with operating costs declining.

    OpenAI (the creator of ChatGPT) went from a $5.09 billion net loss in 2024 to a $38.53 billion net loss in 2025.  In Q1 2026, Elon Musk’s  xAI had a $2.5 billion loss and has had to rent out space to competitors.   The vast amounts of debt incurred for data centres has created an inflated bubble which would burst, if the growth stopped.

    Never mind that the US data centres were the principal culprits representing 47% of the global increase 2025 emissions.

    The energy to power Jeff Bezos’ planned humongous US AI data centre in Pecos, Texas will stem from 35 natural gas turbines onsite, which combined, will provide 7.65 GW of power, spewing out 33 million tons of CO2/year, the largest CO2 source in the US.

    On Canadian AI data centres, a secret internal note reveals Carney aims for a network of massive AI centres in Canada that would provide new markets for Canadian natural gas.  The internal note provides a list of potential data centres powered by natural gas, including the 7.5 GW Wonder Valley project, which could become one of the top 10 AI data centres in the world.

    In another secret backgrounder, Canada divulges talks with TC Energy for a national natural gas pipeline network to furnish energy for Canadian AI data centres.

    Consistent, the Carney administration repealed the Clean Energy Regulation to open the door to the major Alberta gas company, Capital Power, for its intentions to supply large AI centres in the province.

    Oil and gas: Middle East war

    South Korea’s Kim Sung-hwan, the Minister of Climate, Energy and Environment, indicated that the Middle East war crisis has created a “growing national consensus that we must undergo a fundamental energy transition.”

    Approximately 80% of Middle East oil is destined for Asian markets.

    In April 2026, Asia became the largest export market for Chinese EVs, jumping 40%.

    Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bhutan and the Maldives have emerged as major markets for Chinese EVs.

    Along with the Chinese EV exports, China is also furnishing Asian countries with batteries, charging infrastructure and digital ecosystems, together changing the vehicle ecosystems.

    Unlike Western economies, South Asia does not impose tariffs on Chinese EVs, a catalyst for Chinese EV consumer demand and adopting green transition targets.

    Net energy importers such as the Philippines and Thailand depend on oil for electrical power generation.

    On natural gas, Qatar and UAE gas exports are primarily for the Asian market, 90% of gas that passes through the Strait of Hormuz typically heads for the Asian markets, 10% for the European share.

    Pakistan, Bangladesh and India account for two-thirds of the LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz.  Pakistan, as indicated earlier, is making a dramatic shift to renewables and the same goes for India.  Bangladesh progress on weaning off gas is complex, but a 15.4% decline in gas use was achieved in 2025.

    The convergence of economic and environmental imperatives are such that solar PV costs have declined 90% in the last decade and storage 92% in the last 15 years.

    Summing up, when the 2026 data is complete, it will illustrate a compelling phasing out of fossil fuels.

    Thus, with current Canadian oil and gas plans largely aimed at Asian markets, Canada is headed towards stranded assets, once its national interest priority projects are fully operational.

    Abandoning Canadian culture while being the object of US tariffs anyway

    Despite Mark Carney cancelling new requirements for US digital services entering the Canadian market, Trump threatens a new 50% tariff on a broad range of Canadian products, that represent 5% of Canadian exports to the US, to become effective August 19, 2026.  The purpose of rescinding proposed exigencies on US digital services was to avoid Trump imposing new tariffs.

    In 2025, Carney cancelled the implementation of The Digital Services Act to impose a 3% tax on US internet services, such as Netflix and Spotify, to correct the anomaly that these companies were earning revenues in Canada, but not paying taxes

    Carney overruled The Canadian Radio and Television Commission, (CRTC) to raise the amount to be paid by the foreign/US digital services from 5% to 15% to furnish funding for Canadian productions, and place Canadian and francophone content alongside popular options suggested for viewing.

    Carney did this even though the CRTC role is that of an independent government body free of political interference.  Carney’s overrule of the CRTC ruling substituted the C$2 billion from the proposed new taxes, with C$600 million of government funds. The Canadian cultural and broadcaster milieu were understandably enraged.

    The CRTC decision is a response to US digital services having become an integral part of what Canadians see on their screens, competing with Canadian TV and radio broadcasting and other media cultural sources.  The Janet Yale led review group published a report in 2020 to the effect that US digital services must be subject to the same rules as Canadian media and cultural sources, paying fair taxes and contributing to Canadian productions and discoverability.

    The Online News Act too was never applied, this Act requiring digital services to provide compensation to the sources of Canadian news they offered, to combat theft and assure a healthy Canadian media industry.  Only Google complied and Meta simply stopped covering Canadian news.

    Never mind that the only difference between Canadian sources and US digital services in Canada is the latter is virtual, while competing for the same Canadian market.

    The takeaway

    Carney may be viewed as the worst Prime Minister since Stephen Harper.  However, in reality, he is just more explicit than previous Liberal governments in siding with powerful lobbies and avoiding conflicts with the US.  Former Liberal administrations applied smoke and mirrors to achieve similar outcomes.

    Yet, too many Canadian believe Liberals are the best option to clean up the messes created by Liberal governments.

    Even dead fish can go with the flow.

    Despite the dysfunctionalities of Canada’s electoral system, which fosters strategic votes against the greater of two evils, by supporting the lesser evil, and voting for what one wants may seem to be wasted, it is clear that next election Canadians must rise above these dysfunctionalities.  Change will come should Canadians collectively vote for the policies they want for the upcoming four years.

    In the meantime, it is clear that Carney’s policies will fail to address the challenges of our times.

    Global changes in energy/economic paradigms will have impacts on Canada.  Best to support these changes and do what one can as an individual and/or influence by-elections in the interim.

    Carney sleepwalking Americanization of Canada: Fossil fuels, nuclear, vehicles, military, austerity, immigration and more

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0

    Mark Carney won the April 28, 2025, federal election, in part, because many Canadians believed he would be the best to face up to Trump.  Trump often refers to Canada as the 51st state. The irony is since then Carney has engaged in a plethora of initiatives to incrementally sleepwalk Canada towards Americanization of segments of the Canadian political energy and economic landscapes.

    Bill C-5: Fast-tracking projects of “national interest”

    One of Carney first legislative accomplishments was the hastily adopted Bill C-5 in June 2025, also known as the One Canadian Economy Act.  This Act gives Carney absolute power to approve almost whatever major projects he wants in the “national interest,” a very subjective terminology.

    Under the umbrella of the Act, nearly all existing legislation can be ignored, and/or rendered ineffective, for major projects of “national interest.”

    The primary objective of C-5 is to fast-track major projects such as very large-scale oil and gas export pipelines.  C-5 is in keeping Carney’s aim from the outset to make Canada an energy superpower, U.S. style.

    Priority “national interest” projects, environment shoved aside

    On September 11, 2025, Carney announced the first round of major projects on his to do list.  Indications were given that projects for the next round of approvals will occur sometime in November 2025.

    Natural gas

    One of the first to go major projects high on the agenda is that of a supporting the Phase 2 of the LNG Canada, the liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminal in Kitimat, British Columbia.

    For the next round of announcements, the probabilities are good for a LNG terminal northern Manitoba, Churchill on the Hudson Bay.

    This speaks to Carney’s fixation with “drill, baby drill” resembling Trump’s fetish and an affirmation that Canada is the sixth largest natural gas exporter in the world.

    To this end, Carney discussed possible LNG exports to Germany while with Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Germany in August 2025.

    This is incongruent with EU gas consumption down by 20% between 2021 and 2024; and EU LNG demand is expected to peak in 2025.  The EU clean energy goal is that of energy independence, favouring clean energy by 2027.

    Likewise decarbonization is a global phenomenon.

    Too, it doesn’t seem to phase Mark Carney that methane emission leaks associated with fracking natural gas, through to the LNG export destination and consumption, render LNG as bad as coal.

    Methane has a global warming potential 80 times that of CO2 over a 20-year period.

    The declining prices of renewables, mean infrastructure for electrical power from gas is headed for stranded assets.

    Contrecour

    On the first priority “national interest” list is the construction of a second Montreal port terminal at Contrecoeur.   This project has plethora of environmental degradation implications, including contravening the federal legislation, Species at Risk, the Canadian Environmental Protection Act and The Fisheries Act.  While the project was the object of environmental impact approval in 2021, many authorization requirements remain outstanding.

    Oil export pipelines

    High on the next phase of projects are cross Canada oil export pipelines comprising:

    1) Energy East to cross over most of Canada from Alberta to an export terminal on Canada’s Atlantic coast; and

    2) the Northern Gateway with a terminal on the Pacific coast.

    Carney’s export pipeline contemplations seemingly don’t take into account the experiences of the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline twinning project to the Burnaby, British Columbia Pacific coast.  This project, which has been operating under capacity at a loss.  It has cost Canadian taxpayers C$50 billion in federal subsidies so far and costs Canadians C$3 billion annually.

    How fitting is it for Carney to appoint in August 2025, Dawn Farrell, the till then chair of the board of directors of Trans Mountain, to head up the new Major Projects Office.

    Here again the matter of global decarbonization is ignored.  There is an existing oil and gas glut on global markets which will get worse as more new suppliers enter global markets while China, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia, South Asia and other traditional oil and gas importers, are decarbonizing.

    Decarbonized oil: An oxymoron

    Mark Carney’s drill, baby drill thrust would have us believe that there aren’t serious emissions considerations related to his oil export pipelines because Canada would be exporting “decarbonized oil.” Decarbonized oil doesn’t exist, a Trump-like climate hoax!

    Carney was alluding to the next set of announcements to include the carbon capture and storage project of the Pathways Alliance.

    Not a single CCS project has met its goals regarding emission reductions, costs and timelines.

    The Alliance is made up of 6 major oil sands producers for which the combined revenues were C$35 billion in 2022. Does the Pathways Alliance require government subsidization?

    And the “decarbonized oil” does not consider that 75% to 80% of CO2 emissions occur during combustion.

    Surely Carney has made a political decision without regard to the environment and economics.

    Small modular reactors (SMRs), like Trump

    Carney is emulating Trump’s fascination with nuclear energy.

    In the works is a nuclear renaissance collaboration deal between the U.S and the United Kingdom.  This deal reserves a special focus on small modular reactors (SMRs).

    Ontario’s proposal to build 4 SMRs at its Darlington site, are included in the first round of announcements.  SMRs are nascent, still experimental, with a track record on costs per unit of energy produced suggesting it should be a no go.

    Governments, with the exception of China and Canada’s Ontario Premier Doug Ford, don’t see the case for SMRs for which the costs are five times that of an onshore wind farm or solar project to produce the same amount of energy.

    A 2024 report of CSIRO, Australia’s science and research agency, found SMRs to be the most expensive option for power generation.  CSIRO predicted SMRs would cost US$382 to US$686 per megawatt hour in 2030.

    Pedaling backwards on vehicle emissions, like Trump

    The Canadian 2026 requirements for automakers to hit 20% of new vehicle sales to be zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) beginning 2026, was dropped in early September 2025.  This adjustment is in line with Trump’s plan for choice between electric and gas-powered vehicles, reversing 2025 vehicle emission rules to 2019 levels.

    A Trump conflict with California is ongoing as California’s mandated target market share for ZEVs for 2026 is 35%, with significant incremental increases to 100% by 2035.  In 2025, around 25% of new passenger cars in the state are electric.

    Carney and Trump and pedaling backwards on the transportation energy transition.  Global sales of electric vehicles in the first 7 months of 2025 were up 27% over 2024.

    Canadian environmental bottom line

    Not surprisingly,  the Carney administration cannot commit to meeting the Paris Agreement, according to a statement from the office of Environment Minister, Julie Dabrusin.

     Quadrupling military budget to attain 5% of GDP: Aligning with Trump’s Ministry of War

    Responding to Trump’s nagging Canada for not spending enough on military capacity, Carney plans to quadruple Canadian spending on defence by 2030, beginning with an increase federal funding for military support by C$9 billion in the upcoming fiscal year 2026/2027, 2% of Canada’s GDP, as part of incrementally increasing military investments to reach 5% of Canada’s GDP by 2035.  There isn’t any scientific analysis as the why the military sector should be such a major percentage of GDP.

    In keeping with the 5% of GDP objective, Carney’s urgent focus includes the purchasing of 12 submarines to patrol Canada’s three coasts.

    This military impetus seems to conveniently ignore that the only potentially “dangerous aggressor” country on Canada’s borders is Russia, in Canada’s Arctic region.

    However, submarines on Canada’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts may be justified should Canada be preparing for WWIII, with a Department of War.  This resembles Trump’s Department of War with its economic benefits.

    Notwithstanding, Carney likes to boast of the economic opportunities, as a sovereign economic agency, associated with new defense spending.  Carney speaks of the economic possibilities for innovation and the creation of good new jobs for Canadians. This is similar to the Trump narrative.

    Sure, there will be economic opportunities with any type of major fresh government spending.

    Why emulate the U.S. military industrial complex when Canadian spending of huge amounts on cleantech innovation and deployment can close the gap in one of the fastest growing sectors in the world, a sector for which Canada is pitifully weak competitor?

    Austerity cuts to government services, Trump “light”

    To compensate for the sharp hike in the military budget, Carney will be cutting operational funding for federal services by 7% in fiscal year 2026-27, 10% in 2027-28 and 15% in 2028-29.

    This dismisses that federal services are cracking across the board because of insufficient financial resources, people and operational needs, unable to accommodate demand.   Examples are manifold, ranging from inexpedient reviews of each immigrant’s status request to underfunded public transportation, to inadequate transfers of federal funds to support financially tormented provincial healthcare systems.

    Targeting immigrants and border security, Trump “light”

    Awaiting approval is Mark Carney’s Bill C-2, the Strong Borders Act, which allows for discretionary retrograding of an immigrant’s status and discretionary deporting of immigrants.   This appears to be an “emulation light” of Trump’s chaotic harsh treatments of immigrants.

    Other Trump appeasing initiatives

    Ceding to Trump’s rants, Carney annulled the implementation of the Digital Services Act, which, like similar Acts in Australia, France and others, would have imposed a 3% tax on digital services such as Netflix, Amazon, Google, Meta, Uber and Airbnb, crossing into Canada, earning revenues in Canada, without paying any taxes.  It has taken almost a decade for Canada to adopt this act in 2024, due to heavy lobbying/bullying.

    To avoid rattling the beast, Trump, Canada will not apply retaliatory tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. that are impacted by U.S. tariffs and not protected by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

    Trump implemented 35% tariff on items not protected by the USMCA anyway.

    The Takeaway

    Mark Carney is Americanizing segments of the Canadian political landscape, but so gradually that it the cumulative results are missed by most Canadians.

    Climate change has taken a back seat to Carney’s Trump-like “drill baby drill” “national interests” to favour major oil and gas projects.

    Projects that defy economic and/or environmental considerations are being sanctioned, such as small modular reactors.

    Hints have been offered that Canada will not comply with the Paris Agreement.

    Zero emission vehicle objectives have been abandoned, emulating Trump in the process.

    Canadian military spending will be quadrupled while Carney boasts of economic opportunities for doing so.  This aligns well with U.S. military-industrial complex mindset and Trump’s Department of War.

    The stretched thin government services will be cut to compensate for quadrupling in the military budget.  Trump has been shown to be most enthusiastic on cuts to “wasteful” government services.

    The Digital Services Act has been abandoned, though long awaited, immediately after Trump threatened more tariffs if the Act was to be implemented.

    Discretionary powers to retrograde the status of many immigrants and to deport immigrants are to come, though there is no apparent need for doing so.  This may be described as a pale reflection of Trump policies on immigration.

    Carney is sleepwalking the Americanization of Canada and action on climate change has been slaughtered on the altar.

    Nearly all of this wasn’t laid out in Carney’s election campaign.

    “Drill, baby drill” Trump will flop

    By
    Will Dubitsky
    -
    0
    LNG export terminal

    Introduction

    The current oil and gas gluts and planned expansion projects will hit walls as demand around the world for fossil fuels is already on trajectories to decline.

    China, the largest importer of fossil fuels, is engaged in a transition to a green economy at such a humongous pace, it is difficult to keep up with developments.

    Too, China’s affordable electric vehicle (EV) global sales are on launching pads to take the world by a storm, leaving the U.S. to become a dinosaur.

    U.S domestic power trends favour renewables over natural gas.

    South and Southeast Asia, perceived by the liquified natural gas (LNG) industry as the next hot markets, are turning to renewables.

    Lastly, Europe, South Korea and Japan, half the global LNG market, are engaged in a transition away from fossil fuels. 

    Fossil fuels glut

    Oil

    According to the International Energy Agency, oil production will outstrip demand from now until at least 2030.  Two principal factors point in this direction.

    First, growth in oil demand in Asia, aviation and petrochemicals will be more than offset by a decline in demand associated with transportation sector electrification and better fuel efficiency plus the climate action of critical fossil fuel importing jurisdictions, most notably in China and Europe, along with other countries.  More on the climate achievements and momentum of these jurisdictions follow in subsequent article segments.

    Second, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina are increasing their supplies to global markets.

    Hence, Trump is his worst enemy by encouraging expansion of U.S. oil production.

    This could be exacerbated by a pending price war with Saudi Arabia.

    For the U.S., the bottom line is the oversupply has contributed to the current price of oil, around $70/barrel, too low for U.S. expansion.  The U.S. oil industry is hesitant to expand, and more focused on shareholder returns.

    For U.S. oil production to expand, the price must rise to $80 or more, becoming more unlikely due to the indefinitely long global glut.

    Natural Gas

    There’s already a natural gas glut, as per the conclusions of the for Institute Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).  This glut will get much worse, very much the result of the U.S. massive natural gas expansion projects.

    Globally, the LNG supply capacity may increase to 666.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by 2028. That’s greater than the IEA assessment of demand prospects for 2050, 482 MTPA.

    The U.S has about 20 new LNG project terminal projects, with 4,667 km of pipelines.  If pending applications are combined with the 360 MTPA of approved projects and added to current production, the U.S. would be on a path to produced 430 MTPA of natural gas, by 2029 to 2035.

    This would far exceed the current global capacity of 400 MTPA.

    The U.S. expansion projects and the European gas import substitutes, post Russian invasion of Ukraine, have driven up the international price of natural gas and U.S. domestic power rates as a side-effect.

    In January 2024, Biden had tried to put a temporary pause on pending LNG-related projects.  One year later,  in January 2025, Trump ordered resuming reviewal of applications for pending projects.

    Trump chose to ignore the implications of increasing U.S. gas exports.

    Even current capacity alone indicates there will be costly stranded assets before 2030.  Quite the risks, given the price tags of large export terminals are $15 to $25 billion, the lifespan of a export terminal is 30 to 50 years, and import terminals cost around $3 billion.

    There are also the obstacles to the financing of long timelines for building LNG related infrastructures. Terminal construction can take from just under 4 to 5.1 years.

    For an idea of the expenditures for pipelines, 13 of them adds up to more than $62 billion.

    Further, the poor economics of the U.S. natural gas sector demise is already evident. While U.S. natural gas supplies are 78% shale gas, 30% to 40% being by-products from shale oil sites, the more productive/profitable shale U.S. oil and gas wells have been depleted. Since shale gas wells have a productive life duration of 3 years, the industry looks like its heading for another financial conundrum, a repeat of the shale industry meltdown in early 2020s.

    Swelling the global supply situation, Norway, Russia, Congo, Gabon, Nigeria, and potentially Mozambique and Tanzania, are, and/or my soon be, contributing to more gas supplies on global markets.

    The gas export stakeholders continue to pin hopes for larger LNG supplies to supply new markets in South and Southeast Asia,  To serve the power needs of these markets, home-grown renewables projects are the better options since they are relatively inexpensive, and construction timelines are short.

    Significant, China has its own shale gas potential.  Together with China’s goal severance from fossil fuels dependencies, this will lessen the need for LNG imports.  It is estimated that China has 31.57 trillion cubic metres (1,115 trillion cubic feet) of recoverable shale gas.

    Eventually, the global gas oversupply bottom line will lead to lower prices, something that threatens the viability of the U.S. shale gas sector.  These lower prices will likely last for quite some time.

    Green transition is well-underway

    China’s oil and gas imports decline

    China, the world’s largest energy consumer, representing 25% of global oil imports and 18% of global LNG imports, is weaning off oil and gas at spellbinding rates.

    China is the most electrified nation in the world and the pace of electrification continues to spiral.

    No wonder, the peaks of China’s crude oil consumption and refined oil are 2025 and were 2023 respectively.  Crude oil imports declined 2% in January 2025.  By 2035, China’s refined oil products consumption is projected to drop 25-40%, based on the peak year 2023.

    On natural gas, though China is the largest importer of gas in the world, consumption and emissions are destined to drop through to 2030, because gas is more expensive than coal and not green; wind and solar total capacity to-date have exceeded China’s target; coal capacity is used primarily for peaking periods; there has been a shift to supercritical coal power plants with less emissions than traditional coal facilities; and, most important, China has an overarching goal for a peak emissions deadline with an emphasis on energy independence.

    China’s EVs domestic and global market expansion:

    In 2024, China’s affordable and advanced tech EVs captured 60% of the global EV market, 53% of its domestic vehicle market.

    Chinese EV manufacturers are now poised to conquer ALL major global markets outside North America.  The BYD momentum to-date entails manufacturing plants and projects in 7 countries and entering a new country nearly every week, with an average selling price of $16,700.

    Concurrently, legacy automakers, for which China is a major market, are losing market share in the country, because they cannot compete with China’s EV’s which have better designs, prices and technologies.

    The EV Trump effect

    The Trump administration wants to stop attacks on gas-powered vehicles

    Contributing to the demise of North American-based legacy automakers, Trump’s plan is to roll back corporate average fuel economy standards from the 2025 level to that of 2019.

    The reversal on vehicle emissions will result in 25% more emissions/vehicle mile than current 2025 rules and an average fuel economy dip of 15%.  The brakes have been put on the transition to EVs.

    The Trump package would also prohibit California and 13 other waiver states to adopt stricter emission rules than those of the federal government, beginning 2026.   During his first term, Trump had blocked waivers of the previous administration, but the Biden unblocked this restriction.

    As for Musk, he  believes the termination of EV consumer credit will hurt Tesla’s competitors more than Tesla.  Ford claims it loses $100,000 per EV sold and EV-related 2024 loses will be well over $5 billion.

    Accordingly, the Trump administration has sent clear signals to legacy automakers in U.S market to change priorities to favour lineups of more of the more profitable gas guzzlers.

    The U.S. EV market share will not come close to the Bloomberg projection of 13% for 2024 or the IEA prediction of 11%.

    EVs, the U.S. aside

    Notwithstanding Trump’s undermining the EV sector in the U.S., by 2030, the global EV fleet will displace 3.3 million b/d (b/d) by 2030, up from 385,000 b/d in 2022.

    China, renewables and keeping pace with rising electricity demand

    China’s renewables have reached 50% its power supply with the installation of 357 GW of solar and wind in 2024, an 18% increase from the previous year.

    The result is China’s renewables target for 1.2 TW by 2030 was reached in 2024, 6 years ahead of schedule.

    Yet these achievements have not been enough since China’s electricity demand has risen faster than the economic growth since 2020.  The country’s electricity demand increased 7% in 2024, and the forecast is for an annual average of 6% through to 2027.  In addition to the electricity consumption growth associated with the manufacturing of clean tech and energy intensive industrial sectors, there are new phenomena, such as the latest highs in consumption for air conditioning and 5G networks.

    The U.S and renewables

    Most inconsistent with Trump’s view for America, 93% of 2024 power capacity additions stemmed from clean energy.  U.S. solar set a record in 2024, at 30 gigawatts (GW), accounting for 61% of U.S. utility scale power capacity additions for the year.

    And the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts 2025 solar new capacity will reach 32.5 GW.  That’s far less than the 2025 EIA projection for gas at 4.4 GW of added annual capacity and lower than wind for this year at 7.7 GW.

    U.S. solar additions combined with energy storage, will come to 81% of U.S. of 2025 capacity additions.

    Interesting, Texas is the U.S. windpower leader and its solar sector is booming, 11.6 GW estimated for 2025.

    The other 50% of global LNG markets

    Elsewhere, the combined LNG imports of Japan, Europe and South Korea, which account for half of LNG demand, declined in 2023.  The descent is expected to continue through to 2030.

    European gas imports were down 20% in 2024 and consumption is expected to peak in 2025.  EU gas imports trajectory is expected to continue to decline through to 2030.

    Japan previously the world’s largest LNG importer, is another country where imports of gas are descending, 8% in 2023, another 9% in 2024.  Increases in nuclear and renewables capacity will assure continuation of the gas use tumble.  Since 2018, LNG imports fell 20%.

    For South Korea, traditionally the largest importer of U.S. LNG, imports dropped 5% in 2023. With the planned increases in solar, wind and nuclear capacity, by 2035, LNG imports may drop by 20%.

    In Southeast Asia, LNG projects are on pause with significant transitions to renewables underway, especially in Vietnam and the Philippines.

    In South Asia, Pakistan proclaimed a halt to LNG projects while engaging in a radical transition to renewables.  During the last two years Pakistan installed 40 GW  of solar, extraordinary since its entire power generation capacity in 2023 was 46 GW. This profound departure from past energy policies may soon get a big boost, to the tune of $1billion in climate funds, from the International Monetary Fund.

    India, like Pakistan, has no plans for plans for new LNG plants.

    This spells trouble for U.S. export contracts which typically integrate flexibility for the termination of shipments.

    In Canada, most of the LNG projects have been shelved, the results of high cost for terminal construction and pipelines along with public political opposition to new projects.

    The takeaway

    It is clear that the current oil and gas gluts will get worse with demand for fossil fuels at the precipice of a global decline.

    China alone, the world’s largest energy consumer, is engaged in a mindboggling rate of electrification and decarbonization of its economy.  This will significantly reduce global fossil fuel demand, peak oil has already been reached and peak gas very soon.

    China’s affordable EVs are penetrating global markets, leaving the U.S., and probably Canada, way behind in road transportation. Road transportation traditionally represents 25% of petroleum consumption.

    Renewables around the globe are displacing natural gas demand.

    This is even happening in the U.S, where 93% of new capacity in 2024 was attributable to renewables.  Solar and energy storage combined, will come in at over 80% of power additions in 2025.

    South and Southeast Asia emerging economies are engaged in a transition to renewables.  Thus the prospects for bets on the LNG industry exports are fiction.

    Ditto for South Korea LNG demand.

    The European momentum on renewables, EVs, heat pumps and other decarbonization measures, are unstoppable.

    Better technology at better prices are globally agnostic, as such, cannot be stopped by the phantasms of the President of the U.S.

    The world is already engaged in the energy transition and all the new economic paradigms that go with it.

    The Trump drill baby drill objective will flop globally and domestically.

    Electric vehicle transition happening, North America excluded

    By
    Will Dubitsky
    -
    0
    Chinese EV truck battery swapping

    Empirical evidence illustrates that among the 3 main electric vehicle (EV) jurisdictional centres of activity, China, Europe and North America,

    • the China’s EV sector is light years ahead;
    • the EU manufacturing sector is catching up; and
    • North America automakers are falling way behind global EV developments.

    These contrasts are well-illustrated what follows by:

    • leading in with what’s behind the Volkswagen metamorphosis;
    • the leveraging of mid-level tariffs on Chinese EV imports to foster local manufacturing;
    • the U.S. and Canada back peddling; and
    • China championing the global EV transition, encompassing electric trucks, as well as cars.

    The Volkswagen metamorphous

    Less than 2 years ago, the future for Made in EU EVs looked dim.

    However, in December 2025, the fully electric battery electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle (BEV), EU market was 22.6%; plug-in hybrid (PHEV) 27%; hybrid electric 33.7%; and the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) percent of overall sales was 22.5%.  How did this disruptive change happen?

    Mid-level tariffs on EU imports of Chinese EVs changed everything.  The Volkswagen metamorphous is telling.

    In 2024, Volkswagen high costs of operating in Europe had resulted in third quarter 42% profits drops, making it unable to plan the future. The Volkswagen brand at that time had a 2.1% margin.

    The Volkswagen Group had concluded in 2024 that it would have to close at least 3 factories and cut wages and employee benefits.  This was an astounding shock since Volkswagen had never shut down a plant in the proceeding 87 years.  For Volkswagen, its very survival was in question.

    Volkswagen attributed much of its profit declines to heavy investments in transitioning from ICEVs to EVs. With the combination of high EV production costs; underperforming sales of the EV ID lineup; software challenges, a contracting European auto market at-large; and competition with lower priced Volkswagen Group brands, Skoda and Seat in particular; Volkswagen was discouraged from pursuing its EV plans. Volkswagen hesitated to invest in large-scale EV manufacturing.

    To boot, sales in China had plummeted, important since China represents 40% of Volkswagen’s global market. Chinese EV consumers prefer domestic products over foreign owned ones with the exception of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y.

    This left Volkswagen with production overcapacity.

    Upcoming more stringent 2025 EU emission and pollution regulations added to the Volkswagen dilemma.

    Volkswagen flipped its outlook 180° in 2025 with the arrival of affordable Chinese imports with tariffs and duties ranging from 18% to 45% and strong market signals.

    The EU EV market share spiraled to 34% in 2025 with 18% of EU EV sales stemming from Chinese brands.

    In a 2025 about-turn, Volkswagen perceived EVs as a corporate opportunity in both European and Chinese markets.

    Year 2025 saw the Volkswagen Group achieve increased EV sales in Europe, in both its car and truck divisions.

    The Volkswagen Group delivered one third more EVs in 2025 than in 2024.  European Volkswagen Group EV sales increased by 66%.

    Volkswagen brand 2025 EV sales went up 60% in Germany and 49% in Europe.

    Bigger 2025 gains stemmed from the Group’s Skoda division. Skoda BEVs and PHEVs accounted for 25% of Skoda sales.

    In 2026 Volkswagen began introducing several new EV models to the market.

    Overall, the brands that are part of the core of Volkswagen Group achieved an increase in 2025 EV sales of 29%.

    By February 2026, Volkswagen had produced its two millionth BEV., placing the company in the BEV big league alongside BYD and Tesla.

    By contrast the Volkswagen Group overall vehicle sales slumped in 2025.  Volkswagen Group growth in Europe was associated with EVs only.

    The situation was different in China. Volkswagen EV sales declined 44% in 2025.

    Not licking its wounds, Volkswagen will be launching 20 new China-specific EV models starting 2026.

    From concept to production, Volkswagen Group China came up with a unique China Electronic Architecture (CEA).   Developed with three Chinese partners, the CEA has end-to-end capabilities for Software-Defined Vehicle production that positions Volkswagen to develop and produce an array of new vehicles in its China-specific lineup in just 18 months, from concept and engineering, through to validation and mass production.  This made it feasible to begin offering new models in 2026.

    Leveraging tariffs

    To avoid EU EV tariffs, Chinese EV brands have plans for factories in Spain, Austria, Hungary and  Turkey.  Chery is investing in an R & D centre in Spain.

    In lieu of EU tariffs on Chinese EV imports, China and the EU are discussing a minimum pricing framework.  The guidelines under development stipulate minimum prices for each EV model and configuration.  Other electrified models such as hybrids would be restricted under a cross-competition umbrellas that would limit sales volumes.

    The latter would address the loophole that, in the EU, Chinese EV brands have increased market share, in part, because Chinese PHEVs are exempt for the tariffs, Thus, Chinese PHEVs quadrupled their EU market penetration in 2024, compared to 2023.

    Especially noteworthy, it is Volkswagen that has inspired minimum pricing to replace tariffs to facilitate the importing from China of Volkswagen’s Cupra Tavascan electric SUV.

    Indonesia too, has benefited from the leverage of tariffs on Chinese imported EVs.   It committed to reduce tariffs for each Chinese EV manufacturer that plans by 2026 to set up factories in the country.  By May 2025, 6 Chinese EV battery manufacturers had divulged intentions to establish manufacturing facilities in the country, including China’s CATL, the world’s largest EV battery producer.

    In Canada, Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford expressed openness to eliminating the 100% Canadian tariff for any Chinese EV manufacturer that takes action to open up a factory in his province.

    North America in reverse

    In North America, investors must consider that 1) US vehicle emission standards are eliminated ;2) the Canadian EV regulated minimum manufacture-specific market shares 20% by 2026, 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035 has been scrapped by the Carney administration, as per a new EV strategy; and 3) there are 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs in both the U.S. and Canada.

    On February 12, 2026, Trump revoked the vehicle emission regulations as part of a sweeping elimination of the Environmental Protection Agency authority to regulate emissions from any source, specifically the annulation of the greenhouse gas “endangerment finding” under the Clean Air Act.  The Trump administration made it clear that the U.S. will no longer have vehicle tailpipe emission standards.  Bluntly, the Trump administration has halted all action on climate change.

    As for Canada’s new EV strategy presented on February 5, 2026, it is very much smoke and mirrors.

    The Canadian good news consists of rebates for EVs priced C$50,000 or less if manufactured in a country with which Canada has a trade agreement. The rebate program started in February 2026 and declines each year, ending in 2030.  Made in Canada EVs are exempt from the price ceiling, but that exemption currently only applies to the Dodge Charger EV and Chrysler Pacifica PHEV.  The bad news is the goal is to achieve 90% EV market share by 2040, which compares poorly to the EU 90% EV target by 2035 and 2) the 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs in Canada remain intact.

    For North American shareholders focused primarily on quarterly reports, the aforementioned factors suggest that EVs don’t seem like good bets.

    Such perspectives are in conflict with long-term positioning on the global marketplace.

    Honda

    Honda has put on a 2 year pause a $15.4 billion Ontario set of projects for retooling the Alliston EV production line, a new battery plant in Alliston and 2 battery parts facilities elsewhere in Ontario.

    Ford

    In August 2025, Ford announced with pomp a $5 billion dollar engagement to build a Ford EV Universal Platform that would enable Ford to produce, at scale, a family of affordable EVs.

    The shoe dropped in December 15, 2025, when Ford revealed the company plans to offer fewer EV offerings and enact a $19.5 billion EV write-down.

    Ford claimed it loses $50,000 for every EV sold, the long-term return on investment mindset being dropped.  From 2022 to Q3 2025, Ford claimed it lost $15.6 billion attributable to its EV business.

    Its change in strategy stems from lower U.S. consumer interest in EVs; Trump policies to abolish emission standards which affects EV availability; the termination of fines for non-compliance with emission standards; and the abolition of the $7,500 rebate.

    Ford is now pivoting to more PHEVs and ICEVs and less fully electrics.

    Ford anticipates that its global mix of hybrids, extended-range EVs (EREVs) and pure EVs will reach 50% by 2030, up from 17% today.

    Surprise, in February 2026, Ford divulged that it intends to build a mid-size electric pickup on the  Ford EV Universal Platform.   Only Ford can explain this schizophrenia.

    GM

    On January 29, 2026, GM Canada announced it would cut a shift at its Oshawa Ontario plant entailing 1,200 workers throughout the supply chain.

    Back in 2020 the Oshawa plant was included in the $9 billion plan slated for investments in retooling 5 GM plants to produce EVs.

    To finance the transition, GM counted on the high profits on selling more larger SUVs and pickups that represented 72% of GM’s profits at the time.

    In January 2026, GM indicated the Oshawa plant would manufacture the next generation of gas-powered pickups.

    Once again, the change in an automaker’s strategy reflects Trump’s tariffs and the abandonment of zero emission vehicle goals in the U.S. and Canada.

    China leading global change

    There is a widespread belief that Chinese EVs are highly subsidized and use cheap labour, thus are low-priced.  This is hard to validate.

    First, U.S. and Canadian EV tax credits and other forms of financial support may be greater than Chinese EV subsidies.

    Second, China does subsize innovation and development to a greater extent than any other country.  This means that the timelines for cost recovery on new types of products, such as EVs, are less than for legacy automakers.

    Third, the Chinese EV manufacturing paradigm is to maximize the scale of production to lower the cost per unit, thereby making the price on the market very affordable.  With attractive pricing, demand meets supply, not the other way around, as it is in the rest of the world.  The EU is viewed by Chinese EV brands as an ideal market for deployment of overcapacity production.

    The export market is critical since EV profit margins in China are very thin, sometimes negligible with there being so much competition of the Chinese EV markets.  Chinese EV manufacturers make up for these low domestic margins by selling their EVs at significantly higher prices in export markets.

    Fourth, 95% of Chinese EV are equipped with the less costly lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. This is important because 40% of the price of an EV is attributable to the batteries.

    Fifth, China currently has over 20 million chargers, exceeding the numbers of fuel pumps.

    The result, in 2025, 54% of China’s new passenger vehicles sales were EVs.

    Sixth, China requires that every Chinese EV be sold above cost and operating expenses, outside of R & D.

    Seventh, China’s CATL and BYD are well advanced on the next generation of even more affordable than LFP batteries, sodium-ion batteries.

    CATL now offers EV-ready sodium-ion batteries.

    Changan is the first Chinese EV manufacturer to feature CATL Nextra sodium-ion batteries in its entire EV lineup, beginning 2027.

    As well, Changan will begin equipping EVs with solid-state batteries in 2027. SAIC Motor, GAC Group, CATL, and BYD have 2027-2030 timelines for solid-state-batteries in their respective lineups.  Solid-state batteries have a range similar to gas-powered vehicles.

    Eighth, now China is making global history with electric heavy-duty trucks capturing over 50% of the domestic market in December 2025.  Heavy-duty electric trucks accounted for one third of sales in 2025 and CATL predicts this will rise to 50% by 2028.  This is an astounding breakthrough because medium- and heavy-duty trucks account for nearly a third of road transportation emissions even though they only represent 3% of vehicles on the road. China’s transportation sector which traditionally consumed two-thirds of diesel burned will consume 40% less by 2030.

    An EV truck incentive program, dedicated charging infrastructure for trucks along key freight corridors and the launching of a CATL electric truck battery swapping stations to cover 150,000 km on China’s highways contributed to this success.

    China’s electric truck progress has immediate implications for global diesel consumption, cutting global oil demand by an equivalent of one million barrels per day.  Global diesel use fell 11.6% in 2025.

    In sum, EVs are now price and charge competitive with ICEV passenger cars and trucks in China, and this will be more so with the arrival of inexpensive sodium-ion batteries.

     

    The takeaway

    Clearly, China is several steps ahead of the rest of the world in affordable EVs and batteries.

    The mid-level EU tariffs on Chinese EVs and stiff 2025 EU emission standards have been catalysts for European manufacturers to go the full distance to compete with Chinese EVs.

    Mid-level tariffs on Chinese EV brands in certain jurisdictions are leveraged for domestic manufacturing of Chinese EV brands.

    To thrive in the Chinese market, legacy automakers typically partner with Chinese firms to introduce China-specific models equivalent in sophistication to Chinese EV brands.

    In contrast, 100% Chinese EV import tariffs, in addition to weakened U.S. and Canadian governments’ zero emission vehicle goals, have resulted in the North American auto sector going in reverse on EV development, manufacturing, deployment and sales.

    The future doesn’t augur well for North American automakers.  The onslaught of continuously more advanced EVs from China, Europe, South Korea and elsewhere in Asia may lead to another crisis for the Big 3.

    The global transition is in progress.  There will be winners and losers.

    China’s electric vehicles go global: Protectionism won’t work

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    BYD Seal

    Electric vehicle (EV) imports from China will account for 25% of EV sales in Europe in 2024.

    Now China-based EV and battery firms are on the verge of coming to North America and there is no such thing as batteries without content from China.  This is the context for U.S. protectionist legislation.

    What follows is a most comprehensive plethora of reasons on why 1) protectionism won’t work and 2) North American and European EV manufactures are vulnerable to disruptive market threats from inexpensive Chinese EV alternatives.

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    China green shift global impact greater than COP

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0

    Expectations for COP29 in Azerbaijan, based COP28 in the United Arab Emirates?

    The light getting in though the cracks is few countries are immune to competition with China’s sweeping expeditious green transition.

    China’s brisk energy transition intentions are three-fold, decarbonization of its economy, domination of global clean tech manufacturing and reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels.

    Renewables

    The COP28 final statement calls for a tripling of renewables capacity by 2030.  China had an objective to triple renewables capacity by 2030 too, but China will reach its 2030 renewables capacity target in 2025, 1,2 TW (terawatts). The country will continue to increase capacity sharply thereafter.  By 2030, the forecast is for China is to hit 3.9 TW.  The aforementioned COP28 global ambition was for 11 TW by the end of the decade.

    According to the IEA, China now accounts for 60% of global renewables capacity installed in 2023 and this will carry over into 2024.  The expansion of capacity is outpacing rising demand.  For 2023, China investments in renewables will attain the summit of US$177 billion.

    For 2023, BloombergNEF projected China solar capacity additions to reach 208 gigawatts (GW), twice the entire U.S. solar capacity.

    China’s new wind and solar capacity installations for 2023 may amount to 300 GW, astronomical compared to the global capacity increase of 338 GW in 2022.

    By September 2023, total installed wind and solar capacity was 400 GW and 520 GW, respectively.  To put this in perspective, Hydro-Québec, one of the largest utility companies in North America, has a total production capacity of 47.5 GW.

    All together, China is installing 20 GW of wind and solar per month.

    By the third quarter of 2023, 53% of China’s power sources were wind, solar, hydro and nuclear.  That’s a giant leap from 2011 when coal accounted for 80% of the country’s power supply.

    The scale of some of the renewables projects is staggering.  The Golmud Solar Park in Qinghai, the world’s largest solar park, has a capacity of 2.8 GW with 7 million solar panels spread over sands.  Even that is just the beginning.  The plan calls for expanding this park 6-fold in the next 5 years.

    In 2022, plans were announced for 500 GW of onshore solar and offshore wind projects for Gobi Desert across Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu provinces.

    To transport gargantuan new capacity, ultrahigh-voltage (UHV) lines projects are eye-popping.  State Grid Corp of China, the country’s largest State-owned utility, has started construction on 13 UHV lines covering 30,000 km.

    China catapults economy-wide electrification

    China is electrifying its economy at a mind-boggling rate, with 1.1 million electric buses and trucks; two-thirds of the global market for light EVs; electric subways and light rail; and 42,000 km of electric high speed passenger and freight rail.

    Consequently, China’s Sinopec, a large petroleum refiner and distributor, anticipates peak gasoline will occur in 2023.

    Coal

    China’s electric power carbon emissions will peak in 2023 or 2024, ahead of the 2030 target, plateau for a while, and then enter an exponential decline.  This is attributable to mindboggling increases in renewables capacity, and an uptake in hydro capacity.

    True, China has the world’s largest coal power plant fleet.  Yet, the opening of 2 coal plants per week or 106 GW of new power plants in 2022, responds to peaking requirements only.  While China reached 1,100 GW of coal power plants functioning in 2022, 775 GW of operational coal plants were shut down or were projects that never made it to construction.

    Consequently, coal plants in China on average run 50% of the time.  Carbon Tracker has divulged that 40% of China’s coal plants are losing money.  The 5 major state-owned coal power plant companies are also experiencing heavy losses.

    The capacity usage will fall further to 25% over the next two decades.

    These contradictions are largely the result of provincial governments supporting their local coal enterprises and jobs.

    A forthcoming plateau in infrastructure projects translates into less coal for cement production, a 2.7% reduction in 2023 and 61% reduction by 2036.  Likewise, petrochemical and aluminium production drops will contribute to lower demand for coal.

    These factors should result in a decline in coal demand by 2024, as alluded above.  Not only many coal plants permitted up to 2023 will never get built, but also many existing coal plants will become stranded assets.

    In China, likewise for Europe and India, 90% of coal plants will be uncompetitive by 2025.

    EVs

    The BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023 reported that EV growth rates for 2022 were 62% world-wide and 95% in China.

    In 2022, China had 600,000 electric buses on the road, at least 99% of the world total.  That year, it manufactured 138,000 e-buses for the domestic market.

    There were 400,000 electric trucks on China’s roads in 2022.

    China’s rate of light-duty EV growth is 4 times that of the U.S.  Total EVs sold in China are greater than in the rest of the world.  For the end of 2023, it is projected plug-ins will have reached 38% of sales.

    Too, China is now the world’s largest exporter of EVs.  For 2022, exports from China acquired 11% of the European market.  An irony of sorts, Tesla’s Shanghai factory is China’s largest EV exporter.

    North America is vulnerable to an invasion of EVs from China too.  China’s BYD will soon launch the BYD Seal in North America to compete with the Tesla Model 3.  Other Chinese EV brands are planning international expansion.  By contrast, North American EV and battery investments related to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and Canada’s Budget 2023 await production start-up dates.

    Fascinating is the electrification of the three-wheelers for which China and India account for 90% of the global fleet.   There were 117 million 3-wheelers on the roads in the world by 2022, 70% of which were electric, though most with lead-acid batteries.  That jumps to 300 million if two-wheelers are included.

    The 3-wheeler sales in 2022 were over 12 million units encompassing a major migration to lithium-ion batteries.  For the short-term, it is the two- to three-wheelers that will generate a noticeable decline in oil consumption.

    The global share of EVs in two- and three-wheeler sales increased from 34% in 2015 to 49% in 2022.

    Clean tech manufacturing

    China has 9 of the 13 largest solar manufacturers in the world and 7 of the top 10 global wind manufacturers are in China.

    Solar panels production was 310 GW in 2022; were about 500 GW for 2023; and 1000 GW in 2025, the latter 4 times the output worldwide.

    Energy storage battery capacity to accommodate intermittent renewables power will go from 550 GWh in 2022; to 800 GWh in 2023, and 3,000 GWh in 2025.

    By early 2022, China accounted for 80 percent of global battery production capacity.

    China had 125 battery factories in 2022 and more than double are in the planning or construction phases  This despite, China having only 10% of lithium raw material, while Australia has 50%.

    Lower battery prices give China an EV edge in global markets.  The average price of a Chinese EV battery is US$26,500.  That is one third of the transaction price in Europe and half that of the U.S.

    An astonishing next generation battery head start is that of China’s BYD breaking ground in January 2024 for the first sodium-ion gigafactory, a technology still in the development stage for most. Sodium-ion batteries are composed of abundant iron and sodium, free the more expensive lithium plus nickel, cobalt and graphite.  This technology replaces lithium cathode material and can be combined with hard carbon anode.  It is less vulnerable to cold weather.  BYD will initially use these batteries for scooters and micro-vehicles.

    Also, China’s leadership comprises a long-term view, having issued rules that all battery powered vehicle manufacturers must be responsible for battery recycling.  The policy also directs that the design of batteries facilitates recycling.  China is experimenting with a battery recycling framework.

    Decarbonization

    By far, China dominates global industrial production, 61% of global steelmaking, 57% aluminium manufacturing and 52% cement output, collectively more than half of global production.  The chemical and paper sectors represent 40% of the global share in these sectors.

    China’s wide array of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are pillars for backing a decarbonization goal under the umbrella of China’s 14th 5-year plan.  Under this plan, carbon neutrality will be accomplished by 2060, CO2 emissions will peak by 2030 and 50% of increased energy consumption will stem from renewables by 2025.

    As for energy SOEs, they are immune to the straitjacket of oil and gas companies, incapable of changing their increased fossil fuel trajectories.   In this regard, SOEs are diversifying their portfolios, with a strong push for renewables and massively investing in research and development and innovation of clean technologies.

    Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

    BRI is by far the most ambitious global economic development program involving over 115 countries.

    From 2013 to 2022, fossil fuel infrastructure accounted for two-thirds of BRI power sector investments.

    In September 2021, China announced it will not support new coal plants abroad, though not all new coal projects were shut down.

    China has since established the BRI International Green Development Coalition with 134 international partners.  UN Environment will facilitate BRI recipients to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals including green finance and energy, plus energy efficiency.

    For the first half of 2023, 56% of the US$12.3 billion in BRI energy investments were allotted to renewables.  Colour coded prioritization of projects favours green ones. 

    At COP29 in Azerbaijan, November 2024, China let it be known that since 2016, it invested $24 billion in developing countries.

    China emissions to-date 

    There are those who suggest China must act first before their own countries take action on climate change and China is addicted to coal.  China is acting first, leaving no excuses for the climate naysayers.

    Granted, China emitted 31% of global emissions, 11,397 metric tonnes (Mt) in 2022.  This is more than twice as much as the U.S. for 2022 at 13.6%, with 5057 Mt.

    This does not tell all.  On a per capita basis, China’s emissions are half that of the U.S.  Since 1751, China is responsible for  half the cumulative emissions as the U.S.

    But this is history, China is migrating into a green transition quicker than most can assimilate.

    The takeaway

    The U.S.$369 billion Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which is spurring a tsunami of investments in clean tech plus manufacturing of EVs and batteries is largely about closing the green economy gap with China.  One year after the IRA passage, in August 2023, private sector investment announcements in U.S. clean tech projects totaled up to US$278 billion and 170,000 jobs.

    The domino effect on the European Union is such that it is exploring how to close the clean tech investment gap with the U.S.  The EU “lost” its solar industry in favour of China, European wind manufacturers are struggling to compete with lower cost Chinese turbines and 11% of the European EV market is represented by Chinese imports.

    China’s march to dominate the green economy suggest a green transition will become a global competition imperative.

    China will change the course of the global energy geopolitical titanic.

    By contrast, the exclusion of reducing fossil fuel production in the COP28 final statement is not a milestone.

    Perfect storm for the green economy and fossil fuels alike

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    perfect storm: updated July 7, 2023

    Investments in clean tech deployment in 2022, US$1.1 trillion, were for the first time ever, equivalent to that spent on fossil fuel production.  The story behind these historic stats is that of a current perfect storm and circumstances leading up to the present.

    The combination of the Ukraine war; high fuel prices; European Union energy independence and electric vehicle (EV) strategies; the U.S Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law; China’s new 5-year plan; and tectonic changes in other countries have created the perfect storm for:

    • Renewables to overtake coal by 2027;
    • Strong EV sales in China and Europe while the North American new “normal” EV wait times for delivery ranging from 6 months to 2 years or more; and
    • Intensified climate action plans around the globe.

    Paradoxically, the same perfect storm has given rise to the oil and gas industry’s 195 fossil fuel carbon bombs underway and planned, many of them in Canada.

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    Electric vehicles and equipment for mining decarbonization

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    MacLean Engineering Transmixer electric vehicle

    As with most environmental solutions, electric mining equipment (EME) offers opportunities for reducing capital and operating expenditures, while providing a host of solutions to address risks. These lower risks include decarbonization; curtailment of colossal ventilation expenses to evacuate fumes, particulate matter and heat from diesel engines; and improved employee health and working conditions.  Higher profits, diminished risks and enhanced social acceptability associated with EME, are hard to beat.

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    Critical minerals: Global and Canadian portraits

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    Updated May 1, 2023, Pure lithium

    Global developments in a nutshell

    For the rest of this century, most of the world’s needs for critical minerals can be accommodated from mined resources in democratic countries and 95% recycling of battery content.  China and the European Union have policies in place to optimize electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling.

    Australia towers above the rest as a source of half of global lithium resources.

    Canada and the U.S. provide financial support for advancing critical minerals activities.

    Howbeit, China’s critical mineral importation practices are admittingly problematic.  The antidotes are critical mineral deposits and policies of democratic counties plus EV manufacturers being sensitive to such concerns as integral parts of their public DNA image.

    Too, South American lithium extraction practices pose large-scale unresolved environmental perils.

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    Big Oil, renewables, electric vehicles + clean tech: Fossil fuel windfalls

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    Wind, solar, storage + electric vehicle

    Prior to the Russian barbaric invasion in Ukraine, announcements made by the oil and gas majors seemed to imply they were engaged in energy diversification.  This diversification has been typically presented as that of increasing the proportion of their assets in clean technologies while reducing the exploitation of fossil fuel reserves.

    Now, with the oil and gas companies earning windfall profits linked to the Ukraine war, inflation and European urgent short-term requirements for fossil fuel sources substitutes, the real truth is coming out.  High fuel prices have revealed opportunist short term thinking prevails over lofty long-term goals.

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    Canada’s indecent descent on climate since 2021 fed election

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    Forest Wildfire

    The Canadian federal election of September 20, 2021 brought the Liberals back to power, once again as a minority government.  As with previous elections, the Liberal election campaign leading up to voting day, placed a major emphasis on addressing climate change.  Though the Liberals failed to deliver on previous emission reduction targets, this time things appeared to be different in that a former climate activist, Steven Guilbeault, was appointed the Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Canada.

    What has happened since this nomination constitutes a sad tale of giant steps backwards.  These are presented hereafter.

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    China: Largest emitter to green gamechanger, but…

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    China climate emergency global influence

    China is several years ahead of other developed countries on the migration to a green economy, in clean technology production capacity, massive market penetration and green investments. China already has an extraordinary global green export potential. China leads in renewables, electric vehicles and battery production, incrementally regulating plastic solutions, high-speed rail, private clean tech investment, government environmental support and green bonds.  China’s concurrent climate actions are gamechangers destined to have huge global competition impacts on energy, economic, transportation, industrial and other paradigms, perhaps more so than the climate crisis.  But there are simultaneous contradictions. China is the world’s largest liquified natural gas importer, once again ramping up coal production and certainly not a leader on human rights.

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    Electric vehicle battery recycling: Competing with mined materials

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    electric vehicle battery recycling facility

    The environmental footprint of an electric vehicle represents a sectorial industrial revolution, including the first lifecycle end of an EV battery.  With existing technologies, 95% of an EV battery can be recycled for inclusion in a new EV battery and/or energy storage.  The remaining 5% can be handled by third party recyclers.  Because the price of mined lithium is rising exponentially, recycled EV battery materials are set to compete with mined content.  With high recycled content, the emissions of a new battery can be reduced by 64%. The result is massive battery recycling investments and recycling agreements with EV manufacturers are underway and planned, especially in China, Europe and the U.S.  In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers tax credits that can be stacked on top of each other for the EV battery supply chain.  An IRA proviso is that the raw materials, including materials derived from battery recycling, be sourced in the U.S.  In addition, the U.S. Bipartisan Infrastructure Act allots US$7 billion for all battery supply chain stages, including battery recycling.  To counterbalance the IRA, the Canadian 2022 Fall Economic Update includes a 30% Investment Tax Credit covering clean technologies.  But the Canadian tax credits may fall short compared to the cumulative eligibility criteria impacts of the two U.S legislative initiatives. The U.S. initiatives, alongside the monumental head start in China and Europe, auger for a colossal challenge for the Canadian national and provincial governments to assure Canada is a major battery recycling player, despite two prominent existing Canadian recycling firms.

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    Putin losing energy war: European climate emergency

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    1
    Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline padlocked

    Putin’s war has created an electroshock for Europe because it depends on fossil fuel imports for 60% of its energy, one-third of which comes from Russia.  Organically evolving European Union (EU) plans target 2027 for a massive and rapid transition to a green economy and energy independence.  Renewables, electric vehicles, clean technologies and energy efficiency will all play major roles in the creation of fast-forward paradigms for global emulation.  For the immediate, by the end of 2022, EU plans entail cutting Russia gas imports by two-thirds, substitution fuel sources plus ramping up renewables and energy efficiency.  These EU plans will be devastating for the Russian economy.  Russia needs European oil and gas revenues more than Europe needs these fuels.

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    Canada’s 2030 climate plan: Designed to fail

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0
    Oil sands development

    Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) was made public March 29, 2022.  Since the country’s oil and gas sector with methane included, plus transportation components, together, represent about half of Canadian emissions, one would have thought these sectors would be objects of strong climate initiatives.  Yet, for these sectors, the ERP appears to be the product of accommodation of industry lobbies.  The action items stupendously lack integrity and are weak.  As such, the ERP like all previous government emission reduction targets, will not achieve its goals.

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    Trudeau’s climate greenwashing mayhem

    By
    Will Dubitsky
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    0

    Justin Trudeau announced another of his Liberal government’s green plans in December. I have lost track of how many green plans we have had, but not a single one has met its targets. With the prime minister set to officially meet with the new U.S. president Tuesday, the Liberals’ environmental agenda looks embarrassingly unambitious by comparison.

    Raising the price of carbon is one of the pillars of the government’s latest plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But there are no magic bullets and piecemeal measures don’t work.

    The new U.S. administration has announced plans for an international climate conference led by President Biden on April 22, which is Earth Day.

    In other regions that have carbon pricing mechanisms, such as the European Union and China (with its pilot schemes), climate change abatement plans consist of many complementary measures, including stringent legislation.

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